Will it be as successful as the first-generation CLA?
After debuting at the Consumer Electronics Show earlier this year, the stunning 2020 Mercedes-Benz CLA has officially entered production at the German company’s factory in Kecskemét, Hungary, where it will be assembled alongside the new A-Class and the CLA Shooting Brake.
Based on the new A-Class, the second-generation CLA builds on the monumental success of its predecessor and is designed to appeal to younger buyers with its sleek styling. Since its introduction in 2013, Mercedes has sold over 750,000 units of the first-generation CLA, and most of them were bought by customers new to the brand. To say that the new model has some big shoes to fill is an understatement.
"The ramp-up of the new CLA Coupe once again demonstrates the effectiveness of our international production network for the compact models of Mercedes-Benz cars. The success story of the preceding model was already closely associated with the Kecskemét plant. We are now writing the next chapter in this story. While the plant continues to operate at the highest technological level," said Markus Schäfer, Member of the Divisional Board of Management of Mercedes-Benz Cars, Production and Supply Chain.
Under the hood, the CLA 250 is powered by a 2.0-liter turbocharged four-cylinder producing 225 horsepower and 258 lb-ft of torque, which is sent through a seven-speed dual-clutch to 4Matic all-wheel-drive. Other models will make use of diesel engines and a manual transmission, but these will most likely only be available in Europe.
Inside, the second-generation CLA features Mercedes’ MBUX infotainment system first introduced in the new A-Class, which boasts a new intelligent virtual assistant that can be operated by voice or gesture control. Available safety systems include Active Distance Assist DISTRONIC, Active Emergency Stop Assist, Active Lane Change Assist, Active Brake Assist, Active Lane Keeping Assist, Pre-Safe Plus, and Multibeam LED headlights.
Pricing for the 2020 Mercedes CLA hasn’t been announced yet, but customer deliveries will begin in May so we shouldn’t have to wait too long to find out. For the first year of production, Mercedes will offer a CLA Edition 1, which includes numerous accents on the interior and exterior.
Sunday, February 24, 2019
Saturday, February 16, 2019
Manhart releases a power kit for the Mercedes-Benz GLC 63 AMG
It’s been a while since we heard from German tuner Manhart. As it turns out, the team was busy developing a power kit for the Mercedes-Benz GLC 63 AMG (both SUV and coupe versions). They call the end result “Manhart GLR 700”, clearly referencing engine power with that number.
In its stock state, the Mercedes-Benz GLC 63 AMG has a 4.0-liter twin-turbo V8 engine that produces up to 510 hp (380 kW) and 700 Nm of torque. The upgrade brings along improved turbochargers, a better air intake, a new exhaust system and a major ECU tuning. The result is a magnificent 713 hp (532 kW) and 920 Nm of torque.
Needless to say, this kind of boost necessitates making certain tweaks to the stock 9-speed automatic transmission, and Manhart is happy to deliver here, too.
On the outside, the Manhart GLR 700 sports 21-inch Concave One wheels, lowered ride height and a matte-grey paint wrap with atelier’s trademark yellow accents.
In its stock state, the Mercedes-Benz GLC 63 AMG has a 4.0-liter twin-turbo V8 engine that produces up to 510 hp (380 kW) and 700 Nm of torque. The upgrade brings along improved turbochargers, a better air intake, a new exhaust system and a major ECU tuning. The result is a magnificent 713 hp (532 kW) and 920 Nm of torque.
Needless to say, this kind of boost necessitates making certain tweaks to the stock 9-speed automatic transmission, and Manhart is happy to deliver here, too.
On the outside, the Manhart GLR 700 sports 21-inch Concave One wheels, lowered ride height and a matte-grey paint wrap with atelier’s trademark yellow accents.
Sunday, February 10, 2019
Owning property in Bali
The law and regulations concerning owning property in Bali/Indonesia:
Anyone who has been to Bali knows that it takes a moment to fall in love with this island. The climate, culture, nature, hospitality and tolerance of the people living on this tropical island in paradise are all very appealing. As soon the journey home begins, many people already start planning for next trip to Bali. Many times these so called “returners” are interested to buy property. For residential purposes like retirement or as an investment on the rental market to obtain a return, and for some, a permanent base in Bali.
These dreams may quickly become plans and reality.
But to realize these plans successfully you need to ask yourself if you have enough knowledge about the Indonesian property law and rules. How about the tax rules, visa rules, property laws concerning owning a property? There are many questions and finding the right answers is important to avoid that your tropical dream does not become your tropical nightmare.
On this page of our website we would like to introduce to you some of the laws that apply to foreigners who buy or rent property in Bali, Indonesia.
The law and regulations concerning purchasing property in Bali:
Foreigners are not allowed to own property in Indonesia. You can discuss forever but the fact is, that it is not allowed by law and there is nothing you can change about that fact.
However since 1996 it is allowed for foreigners to lease properties for periods of 25 or 30 years with extensions for another 25 or 30 years, (depending on the conditions are in the lease contract).
And there are other legal ways to obtain property. You can use constructions in which a nominee is involved, this nominee has to be an Indonesian citizen.
So first you may have to choose in what way you want to purchase a property, lease or freehold. Many times however, this choice is already made for you by the way the seller is offering his property on the market. Sellers can offer their properties with a freehold title or with a lease contract. We shall give an explanation about these two options.
Purchasing property:
Until now it is prohibited for foreigners to own property in Indonesia, as all property, land or buildings, are to be registered in the name of an Indonesian citizen.
This means that if you want to purchase a property with a freehold title that you will need an Indonesian citizen as a so called “nominee”. In the land certificate, this Indonesian citizen will be mentioned as the legal owner. To protect your interests as a buyer you will have to make an agreement with this nominee at a notary’s office.
If you are interested to buy a property with a freehold title it is adviseable that you already have a relationship with your Indonesian nominee, although in many cases the nominee of the seller can also be your nominee of this person agrees to act as your nominee.
But again in all cases the agreement should to be settled with the notary to make it a binding official agreement. The notary can be chosen by the buyer and the notary fee may vary from 1% up to 2% of the sales price, and is negotiable in some cases. The sales and purchase agreement is to be drawn up by the notary in Indonesian language, else it is not binding. One of the duties of the notary is to conduct a “due diligence”. The notary makes sure that the property is accessible, free of mortgage and most important the property is provided with a land certificate, building license and proof of payments of several taxes.
The “security documents” between buyer and nominee:
Between the buyer (you) and the Indonesian nominee will have to be an agreement and we call these the security documents, to protect you and also the nominee. Here is an explaination of what this documents need to contain to make it legally binding
The buyer (foreigner) declares that he/she gives the nominee a loan (mortgage) with the objective to buy the mentioned property; this loan is exclusively made to buy this particular property. The nominee declares that he receives this amount of money to buy this particular property. The foreign buyer will be mentioned as the mortgage giver and the Indonesian nominee as the mortgage taker. A mortgage document will be drawn up by the notary.
In these same security documents is a lease agreement between the buyer and nominee for example 25 years and an extension for another 25 years and if you want again for another 25 years. For this period of 25 years the nominee receives a certain amount of money each year, so this lease period is been paid for.
Also a power of attorney (surat kuasa) is drawn up , so you as a buyer, have the full right to do with the property what you like; for example selling or renting it out. Also there will be conditions that you are free to renovate/improve the house without needing to ask permission to the nominee.
In the case that you buy land only, the nominee will give you permission in this power of attorney ( surat kuasa) that you can build a villa if you desire to do so. And of course the power of attorney to sell.
Also a statement of the nominee is included that he is obligated to cooperate with you to protect your interests.
And as soon the Indonesian law changes which makes it possible to legally own land in Indonesia that he is willing to change the freehold title (hak milik) into your name.
The documents will only be legally binding if in Indonesian.
If the purchase is only land and the objective is eventually to build a villa on this plot of land the notary has to check at the land office (kantor pertanahan) if the land is allowed to build on, in other words if the land is applying correctly to the zoning law. The land has to have the aspect of "residential” so an application for a building permit is possible.
Lease and rental:
Between rental and lease there is a significant difference, this difference is the period in which the property will be occupied by the tenant or lessee. To put it more simply ....you “rent” a property for holiday or a longer period of up to a year. When you lease a property you will lease it for the period in the lease contract, commonly 25 years, but can be anything anything between a couple of years to more than 50 years, depending on the offered lease agreement.
In both cases and in 99% of all rental and lease agreements the total sum of money has to be paid up front, before the rental/lease periods starts.
Basically when obtaining a lease (contract), you become the effective owner of that property for the period of the lease period with all obligations and privileges that come with the property. You have the right to sell and in case you pass away, it can go to your heirs. If the lease contract does not have an agreed extension condition, the property will be returned to the landlord after the agreed period and he/she can put it on the market again or whatever he/she wants to do with it. In most cases the purchasing price will be less than a property with a freehold title.
Renting a property:
To rent a property for a shorter period of time gives you flexibility allowing you to move quickly if you don’t like the property and/or want to move to another location. However, renting a property is significantly more expensive in comparison with leasing a property.
In Indonesia there are no laws like in Western countries to protect the tenant. The landlord can do whatever he/she wants when you want to extend the rental period for like another year. It’s likely that the rental price will go up and you have to negotiate again about the rental price. Don’t forget that Indonesian owners won’t maintain the house while you are living in it and he/she will expect that the tenant will do this.
You are advised to use rental contracts with conditions in it for both parties, normally a receipt of payment will do for Indonesian landlord and on the receipt is written the period of rent. We strongly advise to you to draw up a rental contract and to make it stronger. You can do this at a notary. We recommend you make sure that the person who is offering you the property for rent is the legal owner or is legally entitled to offer this property on the rental market.
It is always recommended to work with a trustworthy and thorough notary if you want to set up a rental contract if there is not a contract offered by the landlord.
To lease a property :
To lease a property gives you the full legal protection during the period of the lease contract. In popular areas like Seminyak and Sanur, properties with a freehold title are rare to find these days and the majority of properties on offer for sale are leasehold.
The lease contract has to be drawn up officially by a notary to protect the interests of the lessee (you) and the lessor (landlord). In this lease contract the period has to be defined and the sum of money to be paid by the lessee to the lessor for this period. As soon as the period has expired the property falls back in the hands of the landlord/owner of the property. Unless one of the conditions is about the extension of this lease period.
It is recommended that one of the conditions in the lease contract is about the extension possibilities, and the price of the extension.
If the lease contract has been drawn up by a notary, this agreement is legal . If buying an existing lease contract for, let us say 16 years, this agreement still has to be conducted by a notary.
To obtain full legal protection it is recommended that the lease contract is drawn up in the official Indonesian language (to be legally binding) and another one in English to help prevent misunderstandings between parties.
Hak Pakai....”the right of use”:
Besides the possibilities mentioned above there is still another option for effective ownership.
The Indonesian government realized that many foreign investors were not particularly fond of above mentioned ways to protect legally their property and interests in Bali, Indonesia. So the Indonesian government invented the “Hak Pakai” in other words “ the right of use”.
This way to legalize ownership for foreigners is in many ways similar as in a lease hold, the only difference is that there is no landlord/landowner anymore because the title of ownership is set on the government and the buyer makes an agreement with the government.
It may sound a bit spooky but this is all arranged by the notary and many foreigners see this as the only legal and safe way to protect their ownership and interests. This “Hak Pakai” will be noted in the land certificate and the period of Hak Pakai will be 25 years with guaranteed extensions up to a maximum of 90 years.
The notary will make additional costs for this to arrange this and this will be charged on top of the notary fee.
Building your own villa/house:
If you buy land to build your own villa, again some matters have to be taken care of, in which you need the legal help of a notary.
If the objective is to build a villa on this plot of land the notary has to check at the land office (Kantor Pertanahan) if this is permissible. In other words if the land applys correctly to the zoning law. The land has to have the aspect of “residential” so an application for a building permit is possible. This is part of the Due Diligence is critical and you may need to make this clear to the notary. You are of course free to use the land as agriculture land in that case the land can stay with the zoning title “pertanian”.
If the land is zoned “greenbelt” ( jalur hijau) then you are not allowed to build on that land anyway. We do not recommend bribing officials to get a building permit, although it has been done many times.
If the land meets up to all the legal conditions for building, you can apply for a building permit, called an “IMB”. Do not be mistaken and think this can be done quickly. This is better to be done by a person/specialist who has done this many times before so it can go smoothly. Your building permit application goes with architectural building drawings and estimation of building costs to calculate the construction taxes.
We advise you to consult with acknowledged and legitimate building/construction companies who can assist you through the whole process of applying for a building permit and constructing your dream villa.
Anyone who has been to Bali knows that it takes a moment to fall in love with this island. The climate, culture, nature, hospitality and tolerance of the people living on this tropical island in paradise are all very appealing. As soon the journey home begins, many people already start planning for next trip to Bali. Many times these so called “returners” are interested to buy property. For residential purposes like retirement or as an investment on the rental market to obtain a return, and for some, a permanent base in Bali.
These dreams may quickly become plans and reality.
But to realize these plans successfully you need to ask yourself if you have enough knowledge about the Indonesian property law and rules. How about the tax rules, visa rules, property laws concerning owning a property? There are many questions and finding the right answers is important to avoid that your tropical dream does not become your tropical nightmare.
On this page of our website we would like to introduce to you some of the laws that apply to foreigners who buy or rent property in Bali, Indonesia.
The law and regulations concerning purchasing property in Bali:
Foreigners are not allowed to own property in Indonesia. You can discuss forever but the fact is, that it is not allowed by law and there is nothing you can change about that fact.
However since 1996 it is allowed for foreigners to lease properties for periods of 25 or 30 years with extensions for another 25 or 30 years, (depending on the conditions are in the lease contract).
And there are other legal ways to obtain property. You can use constructions in which a nominee is involved, this nominee has to be an Indonesian citizen.
So first you may have to choose in what way you want to purchase a property, lease or freehold. Many times however, this choice is already made for you by the way the seller is offering his property on the market. Sellers can offer their properties with a freehold title or with a lease contract. We shall give an explanation about these two options.
Purchasing property:
Until now it is prohibited for foreigners to own property in Indonesia, as all property, land or buildings, are to be registered in the name of an Indonesian citizen.
This means that if you want to purchase a property with a freehold title that you will need an Indonesian citizen as a so called “nominee”. In the land certificate, this Indonesian citizen will be mentioned as the legal owner. To protect your interests as a buyer you will have to make an agreement with this nominee at a notary’s office.
If you are interested to buy a property with a freehold title it is adviseable that you already have a relationship with your Indonesian nominee, although in many cases the nominee of the seller can also be your nominee of this person agrees to act as your nominee.
But again in all cases the agreement should to be settled with the notary to make it a binding official agreement. The notary can be chosen by the buyer and the notary fee may vary from 1% up to 2% of the sales price, and is negotiable in some cases. The sales and purchase agreement is to be drawn up by the notary in Indonesian language, else it is not binding. One of the duties of the notary is to conduct a “due diligence”. The notary makes sure that the property is accessible, free of mortgage and most important the property is provided with a land certificate, building license and proof of payments of several taxes.
The “security documents” between buyer and nominee:
Between the buyer (you) and the Indonesian nominee will have to be an agreement and we call these the security documents, to protect you and also the nominee. Here is an explaination of what this documents need to contain to make it legally binding
The buyer (foreigner) declares that he/she gives the nominee a loan (mortgage) with the objective to buy the mentioned property; this loan is exclusively made to buy this particular property. The nominee declares that he receives this amount of money to buy this particular property. The foreign buyer will be mentioned as the mortgage giver and the Indonesian nominee as the mortgage taker. A mortgage document will be drawn up by the notary.
In these same security documents is a lease agreement between the buyer and nominee for example 25 years and an extension for another 25 years and if you want again for another 25 years. For this period of 25 years the nominee receives a certain amount of money each year, so this lease period is been paid for.
Also a power of attorney (surat kuasa) is drawn up , so you as a buyer, have the full right to do with the property what you like; for example selling or renting it out. Also there will be conditions that you are free to renovate/improve the house without needing to ask permission to the nominee.
In the case that you buy land only, the nominee will give you permission in this power of attorney ( surat kuasa) that you can build a villa if you desire to do so. And of course the power of attorney to sell.
Also a statement of the nominee is included that he is obligated to cooperate with you to protect your interests.
And as soon the Indonesian law changes which makes it possible to legally own land in Indonesia that he is willing to change the freehold title (hak milik) into your name.
The documents will only be legally binding if in Indonesian.
If the purchase is only land and the objective is eventually to build a villa on this plot of land the notary has to check at the land office (kantor pertanahan) if the land is allowed to build on, in other words if the land is applying correctly to the zoning law. The land has to have the aspect of "residential” so an application for a building permit is possible.
Lease and rental:
Between rental and lease there is a significant difference, this difference is the period in which the property will be occupied by the tenant or lessee. To put it more simply ....you “rent” a property for holiday or a longer period of up to a year. When you lease a property you will lease it for the period in the lease contract, commonly 25 years, but can be anything anything between a couple of years to more than 50 years, depending on the offered lease agreement.
In both cases and in 99% of all rental and lease agreements the total sum of money has to be paid up front, before the rental/lease periods starts.
Basically when obtaining a lease (contract), you become the effective owner of that property for the period of the lease period with all obligations and privileges that come with the property. You have the right to sell and in case you pass away, it can go to your heirs. If the lease contract does not have an agreed extension condition, the property will be returned to the landlord after the agreed period and he/she can put it on the market again or whatever he/she wants to do with it. In most cases the purchasing price will be less than a property with a freehold title.
Renting a property:
To rent a property for a shorter period of time gives you flexibility allowing you to move quickly if you don’t like the property and/or want to move to another location. However, renting a property is significantly more expensive in comparison with leasing a property.
In Indonesia there are no laws like in Western countries to protect the tenant. The landlord can do whatever he/she wants when you want to extend the rental period for like another year. It’s likely that the rental price will go up and you have to negotiate again about the rental price. Don’t forget that Indonesian owners won’t maintain the house while you are living in it and he/she will expect that the tenant will do this.
You are advised to use rental contracts with conditions in it for both parties, normally a receipt of payment will do for Indonesian landlord and on the receipt is written the period of rent. We strongly advise to you to draw up a rental contract and to make it stronger. You can do this at a notary. We recommend you make sure that the person who is offering you the property for rent is the legal owner or is legally entitled to offer this property on the rental market.
It is always recommended to work with a trustworthy and thorough notary if you want to set up a rental contract if there is not a contract offered by the landlord.
To lease a property :
To lease a property gives you the full legal protection during the period of the lease contract. In popular areas like Seminyak and Sanur, properties with a freehold title are rare to find these days and the majority of properties on offer for sale are leasehold.
The lease contract has to be drawn up officially by a notary to protect the interests of the lessee (you) and the lessor (landlord). In this lease contract the period has to be defined and the sum of money to be paid by the lessee to the lessor for this period. As soon as the period has expired the property falls back in the hands of the landlord/owner of the property. Unless one of the conditions is about the extension of this lease period.
It is recommended that one of the conditions in the lease contract is about the extension possibilities, and the price of the extension.
If the lease contract has been drawn up by a notary, this agreement is legal . If buying an existing lease contract for, let us say 16 years, this agreement still has to be conducted by a notary.
To obtain full legal protection it is recommended that the lease contract is drawn up in the official Indonesian language (to be legally binding) and another one in English to help prevent misunderstandings between parties.
Hak Pakai....”the right of use”:
Besides the possibilities mentioned above there is still another option for effective ownership.
The Indonesian government realized that many foreign investors were not particularly fond of above mentioned ways to protect legally their property and interests in Bali, Indonesia. So the Indonesian government invented the “Hak Pakai” in other words “ the right of use”.
This way to legalize ownership for foreigners is in many ways similar as in a lease hold, the only difference is that there is no landlord/landowner anymore because the title of ownership is set on the government and the buyer makes an agreement with the government.
It may sound a bit spooky but this is all arranged by the notary and many foreigners see this as the only legal and safe way to protect their ownership and interests. This “Hak Pakai” will be noted in the land certificate and the period of Hak Pakai will be 25 years with guaranteed extensions up to a maximum of 90 years.
The notary will make additional costs for this to arrange this and this will be charged on top of the notary fee.
Building your own villa/house:
If you buy land to build your own villa, again some matters have to be taken care of, in which you need the legal help of a notary.
If the objective is to build a villa on this plot of land the notary has to check at the land office (Kantor Pertanahan) if this is permissible. In other words if the land applys correctly to the zoning law. The land has to have the aspect of “residential” so an application for a building permit is possible. This is part of the Due Diligence is critical and you may need to make this clear to the notary. You are of course free to use the land as agriculture land in that case the land can stay with the zoning title “pertanian”.
If the land is zoned “greenbelt” ( jalur hijau) then you are not allowed to build on that land anyway. We do not recommend bribing officials to get a building permit, although it has been done many times.
If the land meets up to all the legal conditions for building, you can apply for a building permit, called an “IMB”. Do not be mistaken and think this can be done quickly. This is better to be done by a person/specialist who has done this many times before so it can go smoothly. Your building permit application goes with architectural building drawings and estimation of building costs to calculate the construction taxes.
We advise you to consult with acknowledged and legitimate building/construction companies who can assist you through the whole process of applying for a building permit and constructing your dream villa.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Car COE prices up, others down in latest tender
SINGAPORE - Certificate of entitlement (COE) prices ended mostly higher on the back of sales whipped up by the recently concluded Singapore Motorshow.
COE premiums for cars up to 1,600cc and 130bhp closed at $26,170, up from $25,920. COE prices for cars above 1,600cc or 130bhp finished at $33,989, up from $32,200.
Premiums for open COEs, which can be used for any vehicle type except motorcycles, but which end up used mostly for bigger cars, closed at $33,689, up from $32,909.
Commercial vehicle COE prices ended at $26,230, down from $27,002. Motorcycle premiums finished at $2,889, down from $3,610.
The Singapore Motorshow, which ended on Jan 13, drew 56,000 visitors, up from 55,000 who turned up for the 2018 show.
Industry players also point to increased demand for private-hire cars with the arrival of Indonesia's Gojek as another factor contributing to the COE rise.
An expected shrinkage in COE supply for the February-April quota period may have caused some panic buying.
COE premiums for cars up to 1,600cc and 130bhp closed at $26,170, up from $25,920. COE prices for cars above 1,600cc or 130bhp finished at $33,989, up from $32,200.
Premiums for open COEs, which can be used for any vehicle type except motorcycles, but which end up used mostly for bigger cars, closed at $33,689, up from $32,909.
Commercial vehicle COE prices ended at $26,230, down from $27,002. Motorcycle premiums finished at $2,889, down from $3,610.
The Singapore Motorshow, which ended on Jan 13, drew 56,000 visitors, up from 55,000 who turned up for the 2018 show.
Industry players also point to increased demand for private-hire cars with the arrival of Indonesia's Gojek as another factor contributing to the COE rise.
An expected shrinkage in COE supply for the February-April quota period may have caused some panic buying.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
Investors Beware: “The World Economy Is Headed For A Recession In 2019 Unless Something Happens”
Global economic activity has been slowing down dramatically in recent months, and now the mainstream media is filled with dire warnings that a global recession is dead ahead in 2019. And without a doubt, things do not look good right now as economic numbers from all over the globe just get bleaker and bleaker. China’s trade numbers are imploding, Germany is “careening towards recession”, and the government shutdown in the United States is taking a huge toll on the U.S. economy. In past years, the mainstream media usually tried to put a positive spin on any bad numbers, but now their mood seems completely different. For example, in a Daily Mail article that was just posted we are told that “the world economy is headed for a recession in 2019 unless something happens”…
Global growth is slowing and the world economy is headed for a recession in 2019 unless something happens to give it renewed momentum.
The OECD’s (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) leading indicator fell to just 99.3 points in November, its lowest since October 2012, and down from a peak of 100.5 at the end of 2017.
It appears that we are at a critical level on that OECD index, because whenever that number has fallen under 99.3 a recession has almost always followed…
In the last 50 years, whenever the index has fallen below 99.3, there has almost always been a recession in the United States (1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008).
The one exception was the weakening of the index in 1998, when the United States continued to grow, despite the weakening global economy in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis.
Will we beat the odds this time?
I wouldn’t bet on it.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist is warning of a potential recession and telling us that we should “embrace it”. The following comes from CNN…
The S&P 500 will soon suffer a retest of the lows from Christmas Eve because of shrinking earnings estimates and mounting economic concerns, the investment bank warned in a Monday report titled “Don’t fear a potential recession; Embrace it.”
“Should the hard data deteriorate further, as we expect, we think the market will quickly return to pricing in a recession and rate cuts,” wrote Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist.
When the “too big to fail” banks are warning that a recession is coming, you know that it is late in the game.
Also, a top economist at Moody’s Analytics just told Maryland’s Budget and Taxation Committee that they should be getting prepared for the coming recession…
An economist has warned Maryland Senators that a recession is coming and that they should begin to prepare for it. The economist said that the indicators point to the recession happening in mid-2020, perhaps sooner.
Dan White, director of government consulting and fiscal policy research for Moody’s Analytics, told members of the Senate’s Budget and Taxation Committee that there are financial indicators of an upcoming recession according to the Baltimore Sun.
And the latest housing numbers seem to confirm that a recession may be coming sooner rather than later. In the month of December, U.S. home sales were down 11 percent…
The median US home price rose 1.2% to $289,800 in December, the slowest monthly pace since March 2012, when the housing market was just beginning to climb out of the hole left by the collapse. Meanwhile, sales dropped by 11%, the biggest drop for any one month since 2016, according to a report released by real estate company Redfin said. This follows a drop in the hottest markets, like San Jose, California, where prices dropped 7.3%.
As BBG explains, the housing market is softening after years of rapidly rising prices as the shortage in homes is beginning to wane. With interest rates on the rise, mortgages are becoming more expensive, which is cutting in to demand.
But just because a recession is coming does not mean that we should be afraid.
You may have noticed that I write about a lot of hard things on The Economic Collapse Blog and End Of The American Dream. But my wife and I are not negative people at all. We are not down, we are not depressed, and we are not on any pills. We are excited about the future and we believe that our greatest days are still to come.
However, we are definitely realists. We are greatly saddened by what is happening to this country, but we also know that it is not going to be avoided. So we want to be in a position to make it through what is ahead, and we want to fulfill the purpose for why we were put on this planet.
Anxiety, fear and panic are for those that get their meaning in life from material possessions, that don’t understand what is happening, and that are going to totally freak out when everything falls apart. For example, the following comes from an article by a member of the Council on Foreign Relations named Christian H. Cooper…
My most recent annual salary was over $700,000. I am a Truman National Security Fellow and a term member at the Council on Foreign Relations. My publisher has just released my latest book series on quantitative finance in worldwide distribution.
None of it feels like enough. I feel as though I am wired for a permanent state of fight or flight, waiting for the other shoe to drop, or the metaphorical week when I don’t eat. I’ve chosen not to have children, partly because—despite any success—I still don’t feel I have a safety net. I have a huge minimum checking account balance in mind before I would ever consider having children. If you knew me personally, you might get glimpses of stress, self-doubt, anxiety, and depression.
People like that are not going to be able to handle what is coming.
But if we understand the changes that are taking place and we have our priorities in order, we will be in a much better position to respond calmly to a world that is becoming more chaotic with each passing day.
Global growth is slowing and the world economy is headed for a recession in 2019 unless something happens to give it renewed momentum.
The OECD’s (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) leading indicator fell to just 99.3 points in November, its lowest since October 2012, and down from a peak of 100.5 at the end of 2017.
It appears that we are at a critical level on that OECD index, because whenever that number has fallen under 99.3 a recession has almost always followed…
In the last 50 years, whenever the index has fallen below 99.3, there has almost always been a recession in the United States (1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008).
The one exception was the weakening of the index in 1998, when the United States continued to grow, despite the weakening global economy in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis.
Will we beat the odds this time?
I wouldn’t bet on it.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist is warning of a potential recession and telling us that we should “embrace it”. The following comes from CNN…
The S&P 500 will soon suffer a retest of the lows from Christmas Eve because of shrinking earnings estimates and mounting economic concerns, the investment bank warned in a Monday report titled “Don’t fear a potential recession; Embrace it.”
“Should the hard data deteriorate further, as we expect, we think the market will quickly return to pricing in a recession and rate cuts,” wrote Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist.
When the “too big to fail” banks are warning that a recession is coming, you know that it is late in the game.
Also, a top economist at Moody’s Analytics just told Maryland’s Budget and Taxation Committee that they should be getting prepared for the coming recession…
An economist has warned Maryland Senators that a recession is coming and that they should begin to prepare for it. The economist said that the indicators point to the recession happening in mid-2020, perhaps sooner.
Dan White, director of government consulting and fiscal policy research for Moody’s Analytics, told members of the Senate’s Budget and Taxation Committee that there are financial indicators of an upcoming recession according to the Baltimore Sun.
And the latest housing numbers seem to confirm that a recession may be coming sooner rather than later. In the month of December, U.S. home sales were down 11 percent…
The median US home price rose 1.2% to $289,800 in December, the slowest monthly pace since March 2012, when the housing market was just beginning to climb out of the hole left by the collapse. Meanwhile, sales dropped by 11%, the biggest drop for any one month since 2016, according to a report released by real estate company Redfin said. This follows a drop in the hottest markets, like San Jose, California, where prices dropped 7.3%.
As BBG explains, the housing market is softening after years of rapidly rising prices as the shortage in homes is beginning to wane. With interest rates on the rise, mortgages are becoming more expensive, which is cutting in to demand.
But just because a recession is coming does not mean that we should be afraid.
You may have noticed that I write about a lot of hard things on The Economic Collapse Blog and End Of The American Dream. But my wife and I are not negative people at all. We are not down, we are not depressed, and we are not on any pills. We are excited about the future and we believe that our greatest days are still to come.
However, we are definitely realists. We are greatly saddened by what is happening to this country, but we also know that it is not going to be avoided. So we want to be in a position to make it through what is ahead, and we want to fulfill the purpose for why we were put on this planet.
Anxiety, fear and panic are for those that get their meaning in life from material possessions, that don’t understand what is happening, and that are going to totally freak out when everything falls apart. For example, the following comes from an article by a member of the Council on Foreign Relations named Christian H. Cooper…
My most recent annual salary was over $700,000. I am a Truman National Security Fellow and a term member at the Council on Foreign Relations. My publisher has just released my latest book series on quantitative finance in worldwide distribution.
None of it feels like enough. I feel as though I am wired for a permanent state of fight or flight, waiting for the other shoe to drop, or the metaphorical week when I don’t eat. I’ve chosen not to have children, partly because—despite any success—I still don’t feel I have a safety net. I have a huge minimum checking account balance in mind before I would ever consider having children. If you knew me personally, you might get glimpses of stress, self-doubt, anxiety, and depression.
People like that are not going to be able to handle what is coming.
But if we understand the changes that are taking place and we have our priorities in order, we will be in a much better position to respond calmly to a world that is becoming more chaotic with each passing day.
Monday, January 14, 2019
These New Numbers Are Telling Us That The Global Economic Slowdown Is Far More Advanced Than We Thought
We continue to get more confirmation that the global economy is slowing down substantially. On Monday, it was China’s turn to surprise analysts, and the numbers that they just released are absolutely stunning. When Chinese imports and exports are both expanding, that is a clear sign that the global economy is running on all cylinders, but when both of them are contracting that is an indication that huge trouble is ahead. And the experts were certainly anticipating substantial increases in both categories in December, but instead there were huge declines. There is no possible way to spin these numbers to make them look good…
Data from China showed imports fell 7.6 percent year-on-year in December while analysts had predicted a 5-percent rise. Exports dropped 4.4 percent, confounding expectations for a 3-percent gain.
China now accounts for more total global trade than the United States does, and the fact that the numbers for the global economy’s number one trade hub are falling this dramatically is a major warning sign.
And of course it isn’t just China that is experiencing trouble. In fact, we just witnessed the worst industrial output numbers in Europe “in nearly three years”…
Adding to the gloom were weak industrial output numbers from the euro zone, which showed the largest fall in nearly three years.
Softening demand has been felt around the world, with sales of goods ranging from iPhones to automobiles slowing, prompting profit warnings from Apple among others.
If we were headed for a major global recession, these are exactly the types of news stories that we would expect to see.
We also continue to get more indications that the U.S. economy is slowing down significantly. For example, sales of new homes in the U.S. were down 19 percent in November and 18 percent in December…
Sales of newly built homes fell 18 percent in December compared with December of 2017, according to data compiled by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a California-based housing research and analytics firm.
Due to the partial government shutdown, official government figures on home sales for November and December have not been released.
Sales were also down a steep 19 percent annually in November, according to JBRC’s analysts.
Those are horrific numbers, and they are very reminiscent of what we witnessed back in 2008.
And we also just learned that employers are cutting back on hiring new college grads for the first time in eight years…
A new report from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) shows that for the first time in eight years, managers are pulling back the reins on hiring college grads, with a projected 1.3 percent decrease from last year. Additionally, a survey from Monster.com found that of 350 college students polled, 75 percent don’t have a job lined up yet.
I feel really bad for those that are getting ready to graduate from college, because I know what it is like to graduate in the middle of an economic downturn. At the time, many of my friends took whatever jobs they possibly could, and some of them never really got on the right track after that.
But the economic environment that is ahead will be much worse than any of the minor recessions that the U.S. has experienced in the past, and that means things are going to be extremely tough for our college graduates. And the total amount of student loan debt in this country has roughly tripled over the last decade, and so a lot of these young people are going to enter the real world with crippling amounts of debt but without the good jobs that they were promised would be there upon graduation.
As economic conditions have begun to deteriorate, I have had more people begin to ask me about what they can do to get prepared for what is coming. And I always start off by telling them the exact same thing. Today, 78 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, but when an economic downturn strikes that is precisely what you do not want to be doing.
Some people that I hear from insist that there is no possible way that they can put together an emergency fund because they are already spending everything that they are bringing in.
And yes, it is true that there are some people out there that are so financially stretched that they literally do not have a single penny to spare even though they are being extremely frugal, but the majority of us definitely have areas where we can cut back.
I realize that “cutting back” does not sound fun. But not being able to pay your mortgage when things get really bad will be a whole lot less fun.
Right now people should be focusing on reducing expenses and trying to make some extra money. Use whatever time we have left before things get really bad to put yourself into a better financial position. If you have at least a little bit of money to fall back on, it will make your life much less stressful in the long run.
In addition, anything that you can do to become more independent of the system is a good thing. On a very basic level, learning to grow a garden can end up saving you a ton of money. I was just at the grocery store earlier today, and food is getting really expensive. When the Federal Reserve says that we are in a “low inflation” environment, I always wonder what world they are living on.
When I got up to the register today, I almost felt like they were going to ask me what organ I wanted to donate in order to pay for my groceries. Unfortunately, the price of food right now is actually quite low compared to what it is going to be in the days ahead.
So I guess I shouldn’t complain too much.
I think that I have just been in a foul mood all day ever since I came across Gillette’s new “toxic masculinity” ad. I will have quite a bit to say about that ad later this evening on EndOfTheAmericanDream.com.
Ladies and gentlemen, 2019 is off to quite a rough start, and things are likely to get a whole lot rougher.
As always, let us hope for the best, but let us also get prepared for the worst.
Data from China showed imports fell 7.6 percent year-on-year in December while analysts had predicted a 5-percent rise. Exports dropped 4.4 percent, confounding expectations for a 3-percent gain.
China now accounts for more total global trade than the United States does, and the fact that the numbers for the global economy’s number one trade hub are falling this dramatically is a major warning sign.
And of course it isn’t just China that is experiencing trouble. In fact, we just witnessed the worst industrial output numbers in Europe “in nearly three years”…
Adding to the gloom were weak industrial output numbers from the euro zone, which showed the largest fall in nearly three years.
Softening demand has been felt around the world, with sales of goods ranging from iPhones to automobiles slowing, prompting profit warnings from Apple among others.
If we were headed for a major global recession, these are exactly the types of news stories that we would expect to see.
We also continue to get more indications that the U.S. economy is slowing down significantly. For example, sales of new homes in the U.S. were down 19 percent in November and 18 percent in December…
Sales of newly built homes fell 18 percent in December compared with December of 2017, according to data compiled by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a California-based housing research and analytics firm.
Due to the partial government shutdown, official government figures on home sales for November and December have not been released.
Sales were also down a steep 19 percent annually in November, according to JBRC’s analysts.
Those are horrific numbers, and they are very reminiscent of what we witnessed back in 2008.
And we also just learned that employers are cutting back on hiring new college grads for the first time in eight years…
A new report from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) shows that for the first time in eight years, managers are pulling back the reins on hiring college grads, with a projected 1.3 percent decrease from last year. Additionally, a survey from Monster.com found that of 350 college students polled, 75 percent don’t have a job lined up yet.
I feel really bad for those that are getting ready to graduate from college, because I know what it is like to graduate in the middle of an economic downturn. At the time, many of my friends took whatever jobs they possibly could, and some of them never really got on the right track after that.
But the economic environment that is ahead will be much worse than any of the minor recessions that the U.S. has experienced in the past, and that means things are going to be extremely tough for our college graduates. And the total amount of student loan debt in this country has roughly tripled over the last decade, and so a lot of these young people are going to enter the real world with crippling amounts of debt but without the good jobs that they were promised would be there upon graduation.
As economic conditions have begun to deteriorate, I have had more people begin to ask me about what they can do to get prepared for what is coming. And I always start off by telling them the exact same thing. Today, 78 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, but when an economic downturn strikes that is precisely what you do not want to be doing.
Some people that I hear from insist that there is no possible way that they can put together an emergency fund because they are already spending everything that they are bringing in.
And yes, it is true that there are some people out there that are so financially stretched that they literally do not have a single penny to spare even though they are being extremely frugal, but the majority of us definitely have areas where we can cut back.
I realize that “cutting back” does not sound fun. But not being able to pay your mortgage when things get really bad will be a whole lot less fun.
Right now people should be focusing on reducing expenses and trying to make some extra money. Use whatever time we have left before things get really bad to put yourself into a better financial position. If you have at least a little bit of money to fall back on, it will make your life much less stressful in the long run.
In addition, anything that you can do to become more independent of the system is a good thing. On a very basic level, learning to grow a garden can end up saving you a ton of money. I was just at the grocery store earlier today, and food is getting really expensive. When the Federal Reserve says that we are in a “low inflation” environment, I always wonder what world they are living on.
When I got up to the register today, I almost felt like they were going to ask me what organ I wanted to donate in order to pay for my groceries. Unfortunately, the price of food right now is actually quite low compared to what it is going to be in the days ahead.
So I guess I shouldn’t complain too much.
I think that I have just been in a foul mood all day ever since I came across Gillette’s new “toxic masculinity” ad. I will have quite a bit to say about that ad later this evening on EndOfTheAmericanDream.com.
Ladies and gentlemen, 2019 is off to quite a rough start, and things are likely to get a whole lot rougher.
As always, let us hope for the best, but let us also get prepared for the worst.
Friday, January 11, 2019
Here’s How Mercedes Is Differentiating the New CLA from the A-class Sedan
With the debut of the second-generation Mercedes-Benz CLA at the CES technology show in Las Vegas earlier this week, one of the largest questions in our minds was, "What's the point of the new CLA now that the A-class sedan exists?" Both cars are betrunked four-door compacts that ride on the same platform, use the same powertrain, and have nearly identical interiors with many of the same options and features. Yes, the CLA is marketed as a "four-door coupe" with a swoopier roofline and more aggressive styling, but is it really different enough from the A-class to warrant its existence?
There are a few differences that are immediate by comparing the spec sheets. At 184.6 inches long and 72.0 inches wide, the new CLA is 5.5 inches longer and 1.3 inches wider than the A-class. It's also slightly shorter in height thanks to that sloping roofline. The CLA comes only in CLA250 form, with a 221-hp turbocharged 2.0-liter four-cylinder, while the A-class is available only in 188-hp A220 form. The CLA also receives different suspension, steering, and stability-control tuning, But to many—including some at the C/D office—the CLA and A-class are still too similar. So to really understand Mercedes' thinking behind the two cars, we sat down with Gorden Wagener, Daimler's chief of design, to gain some insight into the CLA's design process.
We asked Wagener about his number-one goal in designing the new CLA, and his answer stemmed from the previous car. He says that the first-gen CLA was "a true design icon car," one that is very important from a brand perspective as he says it helped turned Mercedes from "a traditional luxury company to a modern luxury company." Around 80 percent of CLA customers were new to the brand, with a much younger average age than buyers of any other Mercedes model. He went on to say that the first CLA "looked like a design sketch," with exaggerated proportions, big wheels, and a high beltline. With the new platform and additional length, Mercedes was able to keep the expressiveness of the CLA and turn everything up a few notches for the new generation. Wagener says his team adhered to Benz's new "sensual purity" design philosophy, sculpting the car using only light and shadow instead of the myriad lines and creases of the old car. "It's more like a human body," he said of the new CLA's surfacing, "so I think it's a true embodiment of sexiness, in a human way—what we humans think is attractive. A car like the CLA must be sexy, and this car is."
We then asked how he went about differentiating the CLA and A-class sedan so the two have their own distinct personalities, and Wagener replied, "The A-class sedan is a more mainstream car, so it's more rational in terms of functionality. The CLA is much more irrational." He points out that the two cars are very different when you see them next to each other, and after seeing the new CLA in person, we're inclined to agree.
"It's tighter, it's lower, it's even more expressive in the language and the graphics. It's like when you compare an E-class and a CLS," said Wagener. "The new CLA is like a four-door sports car, even more than the current one, with some DNA from the CLS, but it's even more like the new AMG GT 4-Door."
When it comes to the interior, Wagener said that "the amount of luxury, the quality, the content is two classes up when compared to the competition," and that the A-class's interior didn't need to change much to still fit with the CLA's character. "I think this is a big achievement that we were able to put so much content in there and wrap it in such a nice way."
We then asked if there is a specific design feature on the CLA that is his favorite thing about the car, knowing that is nearly impossible for a designer to answer. Wagener said: "For me it's always the whole thing, and which role it plays on the chessboard of our entire portfolio. My goal as head of design is to make Mercedes the most beloved company, and I think the CLA and A-class sedan will help in that way, because they are bringing a new generation to the brand—and as we have the best loyalty with our brand, they stay with us and upgrade, so the CLA is a true brand shaper." He ended by saying, "And besides, I am happy as a designer that we can do such design-related cars, because the CLA is just pure design." With more than 750,000 CLAs sold since its inception in 2013, sometimes it pays to be irrational.
Finally, we asked about the possibility of the not-for-the-U.S. CLA Shooting Brake getting a second generation. Wagener said that the current Shooting Brake model is very successful in Europe and China. He adds that, even more than the regular CLA, "it's a very designer's car, a very irrational car. And it offers a lot of space even if it doesn't look like it would." Ending with a smile, he says: "So good reasons to continue that, let's see."
Mercedes Singapore News
There are a few differences that are immediate by comparing the spec sheets. At 184.6 inches long and 72.0 inches wide, the new CLA is 5.5 inches longer and 1.3 inches wider than the A-class. It's also slightly shorter in height thanks to that sloping roofline. The CLA comes only in CLA250 form, with a 221-hp turbocharged 2.0-liter four-cylinder, while the A-class is available only in 188-hp A220 form. The CLA also receives different suspension, steering, and stability-control tuning, But to many—including some at the C/D office—the CLA and A-class are still too similar. So to really understand Mercedes' thinking behind the two cars, we sat down with Gorden Wagener, Daimler's chief of design, to gain some insight into the CLA's design process.
We asked Wagener about his number-one goal in designing the new CLA, and his answer stemmed from the previous car. He says that the first-gen CLA was "a true design icon car," one that is very important from a brand perspective as he says it helped turned Mercedes from "a traditional luxury company to a modern luxury company." Around 80 percent of CLA customers were new to the brand, with a much younger average age than buyers of any other Mercedes model. He went on to say that the first CLA "looked like a design sketch," with exaggerated proportions, big wheels, and a high beltline. With the new platform and additional length, Mercedes was able to keep the expressiveness of the CLA and turn everything up a few notches for the new generation. Wagener says his team adhered to Benz's new "sensual purity" design philosophy, sculpting the car using only light and shadow instead of the myriad lines and creases of the old car. "It's more like a human body," he said of the new CLA's surfacing, "so I think it's a true embodiment of sexiness, in a human way—what we humans think is attractive. A car like the CLA must be sexy, and this car is."
We then asked how he went about differentiating the CLA and A-class sedan so the two have their own distinct personalities, and Wagener replied, "The A-class sedan is a more mainstream car, so it's more rational in terms of functionality. The CLA is much more irrational." He points out that the two cars are very different when you see them next to each other, and after seeing the new CLA in person, we're inclined to agree.
"It's tighter, it's lower, it's even more expressive in the language and the graphics. It's like when you compare an E-class and a CLS," said Wagener. "The new CLA is like a four-door sports car, even more than the current one, with some DNA from the CLS, but it's even more like the new AMG GT 4-Door."
When it comes to the interior, Wagener said that "the amount of luxury, the quality, the content is two classes up when compared to the competition," and that the A-class's interior didn't need to change much to still fit with the CLA's character. "I think this is a big achievement that we were able to put so much content in there and wrap it in such a nice way."
We then asked if there is a specific design feature on the CLA that is his favorite thing about the car, knowing that is nearly impossible for a designer to answer. Wagener said: "For me it's always the whole thing, and which role it plays on the chessboard of our entire portfolio. My goal as head of design is to make Mercedes the most beloved company, and I think the CLA and A-class sedan will help in that way, because they are bringing a new generation to the brand—and as we have the best loyalty with our brand, they stay with us and upgrade, so the CLA is a true brand shaper." He ended by saying, "And besides, I am happy as a designer that we can do such design-related cars, because the CLA is just pure design." With more than 750,000 CLAs sold since its inception in 2013, sometimes it pays to be irrational.
Finally, we asked about the possibility of the not-for-the-U.S. CLA Shooting Brake getting a second generation. Wagener said that the current Shooting Brake model is very successful in Europe and China. He adds that, even more than the regular CLA, "it's a very designer's car, a very irrational car. And it offers a lot of space even if it doesn't look like it would." Ending with a smile, he says: "So good reasons to continue that, let's see."
Mercedes Singapore News
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